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With the 2008 Olympic Games less than 10 months away, our nation's allotment of competitors throughout the four Olympic disciplines of cycling--road, track, mountain bike and BMX--is coming into focus. The collective performance of American athletes over the course of the past two years (or throughout the next seven months depending upon the discipline) will determine how many cyclists will represent the United States in Beijing next summer.
 
With the conclusion of the UCI ProTour on the road last weekend, the U.S. will send five men to Beijing to contest the Olympic Road Race. On Dec. 31, 2007 the U.S. will know how many women's road athletes will head to Beijing as well as its allotment of men's and women's mountain bikers. Following the UCI Track World Championships on March 30, 2008, track athletes will know how many representatives will go, while BMX riders will be the last to know on May 31. 
 
In one of the most hotly contested battles for Olympic start positions, the men's mountain bike squad sits just off the pace of sending the maximum of three riders to Beijing despite a remarkable improvement in its nation's ranking compared to four years ago. 
 
The number of start positions a country receives in the men's and women's cross-country mountain bike races in Beijing will be determined by its cumulative nation's ranking based on results between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2007. 
 
On January 1, 2008, a country's 2006 ranking will simply be added to its final 2007 ranking to determine an overall score.  A nation's ranking for any given season is calculated by adding together the point totals of its top three athletes in the individual rankings for that year.
 
Unlike the 2004 Games in Athens which only recognized points from the 2003 season, the new two year qualification window set by the International Cycling Federation rewards a country for consistency over a longer period of time.  The system also protects traditional mountain bike powerhouses from a lackluster pre-Olympic year that could be caused by illness or injury suffered by one of its star riders. Looking ahead, there has even been some discussion of implementing a four-year cumulative qualifying period.
 
Following the 2004 Olympic year in which the United States fielded a three person mountain bike contingent of only one woman (Mary McConneloug) and two men (Jeremy Horgan-Kobelski and Todd Wells), the U.S. has all but assured itself two entries in the women's event for the 2008 Games and currently teeters on the brink of sending the maximum of three men.
 
When the team sizes were determined for the Athens Games, American men were ranked just 13th in the world. In the rankings that will determine the team size for Beijing, the U.S. is currently ranked sixth. After finishing the 2006 season ranked fourth in the world behind Switzerland, France and Spain, the U.S. is now sits seventh in the 2007 rankings behind France, Switzerland, Spain, Germany, Belgium and Sweden. Once the U.S. point totals from 2006 and 2007 are added together, its tally of 4224 points ranks them sixth behind France (7864), Switzerland (7349), Spain (5472), Belgium (4364) and Germany (4353); all Western European nations considered perennial mountain bike Goliaths. 
 
For the U.S. to send three men to Beijing, it needs a top-five cumulative ranking. To achieve that, it needs to make up the 129 point deficit to Germany over the remainder of the 2007 season. Unfortunately, it's a tall order given the relatively few UCI-sanctioned events that remain on the calendar in faraway places.   
 
After a 2006 season that ended with American women ranked sixth in the world behind Norway, Germany, Canada, China and Poland, the first 10 months of the 2007 season ended with the U.S. ranked second in the world behind only China. With a top eight cumulative ranking from both seasons necessary to send the maximum of two women to Beijing, the U.S. is ranked a solid fourth with 6123 points behind China (7236), Germany (6346) and Canada (6182). The next-closest nation, Norway, is a distant fifth over 1000 points back with 4,957.
 
Following the 2003 season, the American women were ranked just seventh in the world, yielding only one spot for Athens.
 
Since 2004, several mountain bike initiatives have been implemented by USA Cycling and Norba in order to raise the level of success of American off-road cyclists. From direct athlete funding and financial incentive programs to the support of internationally-sanctioned events on American soil, the investments made by USA Cycling and Norba have paid dividends. In four years, American men have ascended seven notches from 13th to sixth place in the international rankings that matter from an Olympic standpoint. The women have raised their game three slots from seventh to fourth. 
 
Less than a year away from the Games, USA Cycling National Mountain Bike Development Director Matt Cramer sat down with the USA Cycling Communications Department to explain the qualification process, the United States' efforts to qualify the maximum spots, the recent progress of Americans in world class competition and his outlook on the Olympic competition following a recent Test Event on the Olympic course last month:
 
CAN YOU BRIEFLY EXPLAIN THE QUALIFICATION PROCESS FOR MOUNTAIN BIKING AT THE 2008 OLYMPIC GAMES AND WHAT WOULD NEED TO OCCUR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON FOR THE U.S. TO SECURE THE MAXIMUM OF THREE START POSITION IN THE MEN'S RACE?
 
Matt Cramer: "Start spots for the 2008 Games are based on a nation's cumulative ranking from end of year 2006 added to the current ranking on December 31, 2007. The nation's ranking each year is determined by adding together the points of its top three riders in the individual international rankings. For example, at the end of 2006 we were ranked fourth as a nation for the elite men. At the current moment, we're ranked seventh in the 2007 rankings. So when you add the points together it puts us at sixth overall. The way we stand right now is 129 points behind Germany.
 
"There are two UCI Category 2 events available in Chile and one Category 1 event, so mathematically it's possible for all three of our top riders--Jeremy Horgan-Kobelski, Adam Craig and Todd Wells--to go to Chile and race every event. But to make it successful, they would have to come close to first, second and third place in all of those events to give the United States a comfortable ranking that would place us fifth overall. And that's assuming Germany or Belgium, which is just 11 points ahead of them, don't score any points for the remainder of the season. Also, it's important to note that UCI rules dictate that a rider can only carry four Category 2 events and five Category 1 events on his or her individual ranking in any given year and that all of our top riders are already maxed out on Category 1 events. For example, let's say a rider is awarded 60 points for winning a Category 1 race. But the rules only recognize your five best races. Jeremy has already won a Category 1 race this year (Park City National) and placed second in two others (Fontana National and Medalla Light Challenge). So if he were to travel to Chile and win the Category 1 race down there, he wouldn't win an additional 60 points that a Category 1 win is worth. Instead he'd be awarded the difference between that theoretical Category 1 win and the second place finish it would replace. In that case he'd net 20 points. When you look at it from that perspective you can see the math is much more complicated than it appears at first glance. So you can see a 129 point deficit is quite a challenge to overcome, especially when you consider the countries on the fringe like Belgium and Germany are most likely still going to score some points in order to retain their position."
 
WHAT HAS USA CYCLING, NORBA AND U.S. RIDERS DONE OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST TWO YEARS TO NOT ONLY RAISE THE U.S. NATION'S RANKING, BUT TO MAINTAIN IT?
 
MC: "The two biggest factors that have contributed to our high nation's ranking during this quad compared to the last quad were the elite riders' commitment to World Cups and Continental Championships. The World Cups not only offer the most UCI points outside of a world championships, but it's also where the highest level of competition is. So what all of our elite riders have found through constant and consistent exposure to World Cup competition is that their own personal performance has increased significantly, which accumulates more points that trickle down to a nation's ranking. The other thing is that traditionally it's been hard to get a solid team to our Continental Championships each year, and for North Americans racing against riders in South and Central America, we typically fare very well. So there are a lot of points available at the Pan American Championships in our case. It's World Championships, World Cups, then Continental Championships and National Championships in terms of events that offer the most points. So over the last four years we've had our top four elite men and women participate in the Continental Championships, which are huge points for us right off the bat at the beginning of the year." 

 

IN AN EFFORT TO STIMULATE AMERICAN PARTICIPATION AND RESULTS AT THE WORLD CUP LEVEL, USA CYCLING THROUGH NORBA INTRODUCED THREE FINANCIAL INCENTIVE PROGRAMS: THE MOUNTAIN BIKE PERFORMANCE STIPEND PROGRAM, THE PODIUM PROGRAM AND THE PODIUM BONUS PROGRAM. CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHAT EFFECT THESE FINANCIAL INCENTIVES HAVE HAD FOR OUR ELITE MOUNTAIN BIKE ATHLETES?
 
MC: "I think there are two tangibles. First, through the increased participation in World Cup-level competition, we've seen our elite athletes perform better. Secondly, it's been powerful to show the athletes that we're encouraging them to compete in international competition and support the nation's ranking. They also needed some kind of tangible reward to illustrate the respect we have for them for making that decision and commitment to USA Cycling and Norba. Ultimately, their participation in high-level international events is in the best interest of the U.S., but it also benefits the individual athletes who are Olympic hopefuls. The more start spots we have, the better chance they have of making the team. These programs are a good incentive for our athletes to understand that we find tremendous value in their commitment."

 

 

MC: "At first glance, it doesn't look like a very difficult course.  There's not much elevation gain and it's a very urban course with no real technical sections. There are a few rock gardens that were manually built to make the course more difficult, but what's really going to make the race hard is that each lap is only four kilometers long. The men's race was ten laps and within each lap there are probably 10 to 15 very short, high-intensity efforts: going up little risers, coming out of hairpin turns into a little climb that maybe lasts 10 seconds; those sorts of things.  It will all be about maintaining your momentum. It's a course that's going to favor a rider with power, but also the ability to recover between those high efforts. So typically speaking, riders that are good at fast, non-technical but challenging, high power courses are going to do well in Beijing."
 
WHAT'S THE DOWNSIDE TO MAKING AN ATTEMPT AT ACCUMULATING MORE NATION'S RANKING POINTS IN THE FINAL THREE RACES OF THE SEASON IN SOUTH AMERICA?

 

MC: "Again, we'd have to have all three riders go and do very well at those three races to earn enough points that could put us ahead of Germany. It's unpredictable to know what events Germany is going to do in order to maintain their ranking as well, so it's quite a gamble for all three of our riders to go to South America. In a perfect world, it would be good to know that we need to win x-amount of UCI points to get a third spot, but there is no way of knowing what's on other countries' schedules. Another consideration is that it would be three races in three weeks. It's the beginning of the spring racing season in Chile, so it's essentially another three weeks of travel for the riders to make it a worthwhile endeavor. And as you know, for North Americans, November is typically a time for the riders to recover from their season and mentally recoup from the past season and prepare for 2008.  It's also the spring for the South Americans and they're geared up for the racing season to begin and so the points down there will be far from easy to secure. It wouldn't be easy to just show up and contend for those points when technically we're in a recovery period and
they're at the pinnacle of their racing season. In looking ahead to Beijing, it would be a much better scenario to send two physically and mentally prepared men to the Olympics who have a shot at contending compared to sending three men who are tired and burned out from accumulating enough points just to send three participants."